Moore's Law Won't Create The Singularity On Its Own

Moore's Law, which predicts a doubling of transistor density every 18 months, won't give us superhuman intelligence in a reasonable timeframe by itself, says author Vernor Vinge in this new video from the Ideas Project.

But that doesn't mean the Singularity isn't coming — it's just coming from a few different places. Vinge packs a lot of ideas into a short video, including the fact that we're already seeing more embedded networks everywhere, and networks can visualize the geometry of their idea based on the "ID number of the node they're pinging off of, and the round-trip time." And he's confident that cyberspace will be everting, and we'll be living in a consensual reality, sooner than we think. [via PR Web]

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DISCUSSION

Corpore Metal

Artificial intelligence, just like human intelligence, has always been a matter of organization not raw power or speed. You could build an artificial mind out of books filled with instructions, a pen and tera-reams of blank paper. If the instructions are written right, it would be conscious, slow but conscious.

That point aside, my feeling is that we've passed through technological singularities in the past. These were transitions to new cultures that previous cultures simply couldn't imagine. One of the first was our transition to agriculture. The next was the industrial revolution. The next was IT. At each point the prior society only had the vaguest inkling of what was to come.

When the world of artificial life and mind shows up, where advanced nanotechnology and intelligence amplification are commonplace, it will just be one in a long line of transitions. We probably won't realize we're passing through it. We'll be distracted by surface detail as we were in the previous transitions.