Popular names comes and go like the wind, making it next to impossible to know which ones will endure or make a comeback. A new Baby Name Predictor attempts to solve this problem by determining which names will rise and fall in popularity over the next 25 years.
This tool, which can be found at Time, was developed by Chris Franck, an assistant research professor in statistics at Virginia Tech. It predicts how a name will rise in popularity over the course of the next 25 years by examining previous performance of earlier names that followed similar patterns of popularity. The names themselves are taken from the U.S. Social Security Administration's list of the most popular baby names of 2013, which was just released this past Friday.
Time's Chris Wilson explains more:
In the case of Adele, for example, our model found that the name is currently following a pattern very similar to names like Grace, Eva, and Lavinia, which were similarly popular in the early 20th century and enjoyed a comeback in the recent past. (Adele's spike in popularity might have something to do with this one.) Because these names are farther along in their lifecycle, they offer some insight into what the next few years will look like for Adele.
Based on this method, here are a few predictions: Noah's best days are behind him. We predict that 2013 was the most popular year the Biblical name will have in many years to come. Emma is very likely to be the top girl's name of 2014. And keep your eyes out for Harrison and Emmett. Meanwhile, Sophia's best days just might be behind her.